EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Haven Games Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 13.0% | 14 | 85.7% | 75.3% | 60.8% | 59.7% | 1268 | — |
| 2 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 59.8% | 55.9% | 55.4% | 1231 | — |
| 3 | Water Umbra Ranger | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 61.1% | 50.7% | 53.2% | 50.3% | 1353 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 13.0% | 11 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 50.7% | 50.7% | 1226 | — |
| 5 | Fire Neos Tonoris | 2 | 8.7% | 8 | 56.2% | 54.0% | 49.9% | 50.2% | 1296 | — |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 3 | 13.0% | 15 | 53.3% | 49.9% | 49.3% | 48.8% | 1337 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Allies | 3 | 13.0% | 15 | 46.7% | 49.1% | 47.6% | 48.6% | 1269 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.3% | 46.0% | 48.2% | 1158 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 3 | 13.0% | 12 | 33.3% | 39.0% | 45.4% | 46.1% | 1128 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.4% | 42.9% | 45.8% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 0.0% | 26.6% | 40.0% | 41.6% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Neos | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 31.9% | 36.7% | 38.6% | 1233 | — |