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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Brood en Spelen MRC Regionals
decks
2
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1199
· median 1199
· range 1176–1222
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1172
Q3 1353
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.0% | -2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
