EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 8/8/2024. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Slimes

54.5%

14.8% share · 25 matches

1st

Fire Crux Hybrid

58.5%

7.4% share · 13 matches

5.6% share · 9 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Hybrid	4	7.4%	13	76.9%	51.8%	58.5%	50.8%	1367	↑ top
2	Slimes	8	14.8%	25	64.0%	51.1%	54.5%	50.4%	1325	—
3	Water Ravishing Mill	3	5.6%	9	66.7%	51.3%	54.2%	50.5%	1290	—
4	Fire Crux Merlin	2	3.7%	6	75.0%	51.0%	54.1%	50.3%	1348	—
5	Water Neos	2	3.7%	8	62.5%	49.8%	52.2%	49.9%	1397	↑ top
6	Fire Zander	1	1.9%	3	33.3%	50.1%	52.0%	50.5%	1055	↓ low
7	Wind Shadowstrike	9	16.7%	25	52.0%	49.8%	51.1%	50.0%	1315	—
8	Fire Neos	1	1.9%	3	33.3%	49.5%	50.0%	50.0%	1219	↓ low
9	Wind Umbra Ranger	1	1.9%	3	33.3%	51.0%	50.0%	50.7%	1136	↓ low
10	Fire Slimes	1	1.9%	4	50.0%	50.3%	46.7%	49.8%	1416	↑ top
11	Fire Aggro	3	5.6%	11	50.0%	49.6%	46.2%	49.7%	1274	—
12	Wind Allies	8	14.8%	22	34.1%	48.8%	45.9%	49.6%	1326	—
13	Water Crux Lorraine	2	3.7%	6	41.7%	50.1%	45.4%	49.9%	1239	↓ low
14	Fire Crux Mage	5	9.3%	16	43.8%	49.5%	43.2%	49.5%	1272	—
15	Wind Arcane	1	1.9%	4	25.0%	48.6%	42.6%	49.2%	1259	—
16	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	1.9%	3	0.0%	48.3%	40.0%	49.2%	1209	↓ low
17	Water Astra Cleric	1	1.9%	2	0.0%	48.8%	40.0%	49.2%	1152	↓ low
18	Fire Arcane	1	1.9%	3	0.0%	48.1%	40.0%	49.1%	1247	↓ low