EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 2 | 11.8% | 14 | 75.0% | 57.1% | 57.6% | 52.6% | 1293 | — |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 23.5% | 20 | 60.0% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 55.9% | 1354 | — |
| 3 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 55.2% | 56.2% | 55.4% | 1298 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 5.9% | 9 | 72.2% | 71.1% | 54.4% | 57.9% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 54.7% | 52.6% | 54.7% | 1301 | — |
| 6 | Slimes | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 37.5% | 47.3% | 47.1% | 49.1% | 1258 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 31.2% | 48.6% | 46.4% | 49.9% | 1302 | — |
| 8 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.4% | 43.7% | 42.2% | 1335 | — |
| 9 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 20.0% | 25.8% | 43.0% | 39.7% | 1472 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 3 | 17.6% | 13 | 23.1% | 31.7% | 40.3% | 41.6% | 1334 | — |