← Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Allies 2 11.8% 14 75.0% 57.1% 57.6% 52.6% 1293
2 Wind Shadowstrike 4 23.5% 20 60.0% 57.2% 56.8% 55.9% 1354
3 Wind Umbra Diana 1 5.9% 6 58.3% 55.2% 56.2% 55.4% 1298
4 Fire Crux Hybrid 1 5.9% 9 72.2% 71.1% 54.4% 57.9% 1391 ↑ top
5 Wind Overlord 1 5.9% 6 50.0% 54.7% 52.6% 54.7% 1301
6 Slimes 2 11.8% 8 37.5% 47.3% 47.1% 49.1% 1258 ↓ low
7 Fire Arcane 2 11.8% 8 31.2% 48.6% 46.4% 49.9% 1302
8 Wind Slimes 1 5.9% 5 40.0% 39.4% 43.7% 42.2% 1335
9 Fire Erupting 1 5.9% 5 20.0% 25.8% 43.0% 39.7% 1472 ↑ top
10 Wind Allies 3 17.6% 13 23.1% 31.7% 40.3% 41.6% 1334