← Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mortal Ambition Canadian Regionals - Forest City Coins.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Razorgale | 4 | 7.7% | 20 | 87.5% | 69.9% | 63.6% | 59.0% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 3.8% | 7 | 64.3% | 56.6% | 56.2% | 54.5% | 1367 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 66.7% | 60.5% | 54.5% | 54.4% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Crux Mage | 3 | 5.8% | 18 | 58.3% | 52.6% | 54.1% | 51.1% | 1249 | — |
| 5 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 66.7% | 65.5% | 54.0% | 56.3% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 57.2% | 52.0% | 52.1% | 1250 | — |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 58.3% | 53.7% | 51.3% | 49.6% | 1257 | — |
| 8 | Water Allies | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 66.7% | 57.8% | 51.1% | 50.1% | 1223 | — |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 8 | 15.4% | 35 | 51.4% | 54.8% | 48.4% | 51.2% | 1295 | — |
| 10 | Slimes | 8 | 15.4% | 35 | 45.7% | 49.4% | 48.2% | 49.8% | 1238 | — |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 6 | 11.5% | 30 | 41.7% | 39.5% | 46.5% | 44.2% | 1246 | — |
| 12 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 45.9% | 45.9% | 48.7% | 1083 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Cats | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.3% | 45.6% | 49.2% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 48.6% | 45.5% | 48.1% | 1218 | — |
| 15 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 49.0% | 45.2% | 48.2% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 51.2% | 45.0% | 46.9% | 1073 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 40.9% | 45.0% | 46.6% | 1210 | — |
| 18 | Water Diana | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 25.0% | 36.7% | 44.2% | 45.7% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.9% | 3 | 16.7% | 36.1% | 43.8% | 43.0% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 3.8% | 12 | 37.5% | 39.0% | 42.1% | 43.4% | 1302 | — |
| 21 | Wind Exia | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 10.0% | 28.0% | 40.7% | 40.6% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 10.0% | 30.0% | 40.6% | 42.0% | 937 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.0% | 40.9% | 40.0% | 40.9% | 1120 | ↓ low |