Water AlliesTier 1
at EM AMB REGIONALS 2025
decks
4
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
14-10-4
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1307
· range 1271–1392
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1014
Q1 1170
Q3 1392
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.8% | +3.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 41.7% | -4.8 |
| Wind Allies | 13.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.8% | -7.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 41.0% | -5.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.2% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +5.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
