Water ExiaTier 2
at EM AMB REGIONALS 2025
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.4%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1186
· median 1186
· range 1186–1186
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1014
Q1 1170
Q3 1392
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Allies | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
