Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at EM AMB REGIONALS 2025
decks
4
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
29
13-10-6
overall winrate
55.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
55.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1375
· median 1343
· range 1274–1538
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1014
Q1 1170
Q3 1392
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.2% | +3.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.9% | +15.6 |
| Wind Allies | 13.3% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 70.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.2% | 6 | 1-2-3 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 43.9% | -3.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.1% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.1% | -5.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.4 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
