← Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!
Fire AggroTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.0% | -5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.5% | +7.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 55 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Powered Bishop | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flashfire Horse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Horse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sidestep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolid Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swerving Spring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |