← Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!
Fire SlimesTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!
decks
2
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-7-0
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.0%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1215
· median 1215
· range 1202–1227
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
985
Q1 1205
Q3 1406
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.5% | -5.4 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.2 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
