← Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!
Water Crux MageTier 3
at Weatherlight Grand Archive Store Championship - Mortal Ambition season!
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1522
· median 1522
· range 1522–1522
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
985
Q1 1205
Q3 1406
1571
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
