EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mana Pro Store Championship Singapore. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Shadowstrike

52.0%

6.8% share · 14 matches

1st

Water Penguin Mill

56.4%

20.5% share · 41 matches

18.2% share · 41 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Penguin Mill	9	20.5%	41	64.6%	61.5%	56.4%	55.9%	1424	↑ top
2	Wind Shadowstrike	3	6.8%	14	53.6%	53.4%	52.0%	51.5%	1381	—
3	Fire Crux Mage	8	18.2%	41	53.7%	49.9%	50.7%	49.1%	1388	—
4	Ravishing Mill	1	2.3%	5	60.0%	55.8%	50.6%	51.3%	1405	↑ top
5	Water Ravishing Mill	4	9.1%	15	50.0%	46.7%	49.8%	48.0%	1311	—
6	Wind Razorgale	2	4.5%	12	54.2%	50.9%	48.1%	47.9%	1226	↓ low
7	Wind Astra Cleric	4	9.1%	19	57.9%	58.2%	47.7%	49.7%	1290	—
8	Fire Exia	3	6.8%	16	43.8%	48.6%	46.7%	48.0%	1222	↓ low
9	Wind Cats	1	2.3%	6	33.3%	43.9%	46.1%	47.1%	1252	↓ low
10	Slimes	4	9.1%	18	41.7%	44.2%	45.3%	46.5%	1358	—
11	Water Allies	2	4.5%	10	35.0%	39.9%	44.8%	45.8%	1139	↓ low
12	Water Crux Mage	1	2.3%	6	50.0%	55.7%	43.2%	47.7%	1460	↑ top
13	Fire Umbra Diana	1	2.3%	5	0.0%	27.4%	40.0%	41.7%	953	↓ low
14	Wind Kongming	1	2.3%	6	0.0%	23.8%	40.0%	42.0%	1300	—