Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Regionals Mortal Ambition
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.0% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.8% | +1.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.5% | -8.1 |
| Wind Cats | 4.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +14.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |