SlimesTier 2
at Regionals Mortal Ambition
decks
13
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
57
26-29-2
overall winrate
47.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1244
· median 1229
· range 1020–1507
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1165
Q3 1349
1656
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
31% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.8% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -5.0 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.0% | +14.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.6% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 34.2% | -10.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Wind Cats | 4.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -2.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.4% | -15.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Beast | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Tera Sight, Escape the Wreckage, Blissful Calling. Losers more often ran: Beastbond Paws, Resolute Stand, Slime's Blessing.
Tera Sight
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Escape the Wreckage
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Blissful Calling
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Smoke Bombs
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Morgan, Soul Guide
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Ethereal Slime
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Beastbond Paws
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Slime's Blessing
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Lustrous Slime
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Scavenging Raccoon
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Verdant Slime
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 58 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tera Sight | +0.38 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Blissful Calling | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Green Slime | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Green Slime | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Slime's Blessing | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Lustrous Slime | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Slime Eruption | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Stonescale Band | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Verdant Slime | -0.12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Entrancing Filigree | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blue Slime | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Key Slime Pudding | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Mending | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Totem | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Nexus | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vampiric Slime | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Slime King | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Engineered Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |