Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Regionals Mortal Ambition
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.6% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Wind Cats | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
| Wind Beast | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |