Fire ExiaTier 2
at Regionals Mortal Ambition
decks
4
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
6-11-7
overall winrate
39.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
43.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1251
· median 1241
· range 1224–1298
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1165
Q3 1349
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.6% | -8.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 47.2% | -1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 4.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.1% | -16.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.6% | +3.4 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.5 |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
