Water Crux MerlinTier 3
at Regionals Mortal Ambition
decks
1
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
43.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1006
· median 1006
· range 1006–1006
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1165
Q3 1349
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
