← Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 17.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Fire Exia | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Water Silvie | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Diana | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Fire Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excoriate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |