← Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
Water SilvieTier 2
at Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 17.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Exia | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Razorgale | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Water Beast | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 4 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 4 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |