← Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
decks
5
(12.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
2-8-1
overall winrate
22.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.1%
avg ELO -6.1 per match
expected value
40.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1266
· median 1189
· range 994–1502
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1502
1736
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
60% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 17.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.1 |
| Slimes | 9.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.3% | -13.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Diana | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
