← Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
Water ArisannaTier 2
at Regional - Knight & Day Games (Las Vegas, NV)
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.0%
avg ELO -11.2 per match
expected value
34.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1386
· median 1386
· range 1386–1386
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1218
Q3 1502
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 17.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.9% | -11.7 |
| Fire Exia | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
