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Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt AMB Regionals
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Water Allies | 12.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 8 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |