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Water AlliesTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +9.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 46.1% | -2.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |