← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt AMB Regionals
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt AMB Regionals
decks
3
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
12-5-1
overall winrate
69.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.5%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1516
· median 1509
· range 1463–1575
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
991
Q1 1225
Q3 1401
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Water Allies | 12.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.8% | -5.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 58.6% | +6.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 3.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 58.7% | +6.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
