← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt AMB Regionals
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt AMB Regionals
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-4-4
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1271
· median 1271
· range 1232–1309
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
991
Q1 1225
Q3 1401
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.2 |
| Water Allies | 12.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
