← GA Online Regional Championship (AMB)
Water AlliesTier 1
at GA Online Regional Championship (AMB)
decks
4
(7.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
15-6-2
overall winrate
69.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.5%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
62.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1432
· median 1420
· range 1353–1535
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1278
Q3 1436
1689
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 14.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 46.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Tristan | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
