← GA Online Regional Championship (AMB)
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at GA Online Regional Championship (AMB)
decks
4
(7.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
13-6-6
overall winrate
64.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.4%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
55.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1298
· median 1260
· range 1222–1452
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1278
Q3 1436
1689
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.1% | 9 | 3-2-4 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 53.7% | +1.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 14.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Allies | 7.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Umbra Tristan | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
