Water AlliesTier 2
at LKH Store Championship
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-5-1
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1179
· median 1179
· range 956–1401
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
956
Q1 1192
Q3 1402
1498
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.9% | +3.7 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.3% | -5.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
