Water ExiaTier 2
at LKH Store Championship
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
43.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1029
· median 1029
· range 1029–1029
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
956
Q1 1192
Q3 1402
1498
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
