Water Penguin MillTier 2
at LKH Store Championship
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-4-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1318
· median 1318
· range 1318–1319
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
956
Q1 1192
Q3 1402
1498
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.0% | -3.0 |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
