Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at LKH Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.5% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Panzer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Frostguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Accompanying Guard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |