EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Singapore Regionals at Agora Hobby . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Hybrid

54.3%

6.5% share · 33 matches

11.7% share · 56 matches

3rd

Wind Allies

53.0%

14.3% share · 61 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Allies	9	11.7%	56	64.3%	57.0%	55.4%	52.4%	1335	—
2	Fire Crux Hybrid	5	6.5%	33	56.1%	56.4%	54.3%	55.0%	1385	↑ top
3	Wind Allies	11	14.3%	61	55.7%	53.8%	53.0%	52.3%	1324	—
4	Fire Luxem Assassin	5	6.5%	31	59.7%	57.8%	52.8%	52.4%	1388	↑ top
5	Fire Crux Merlin	1	1.3%	7	71.4%	61.3%	52.5%	52.0%	1633	↑ top
6	Fire Aggro	10	13.0%	59	54.2%	54.8%	51.0%	51.5%	1294	—
7	Fire Erupting	6	7.8%	36	52.8%	53.3%	50.1%	50.7%	1268	—
8	Wind Crux Lorraine	5	6.5%	31	50.0%	50.1%	50.0%	50.3%	1347	—
9	Wind Umbra Ranger	1	1.3%	7	57.1%	54.7%	48.2%	48.7%	1145	↓ low
10	Water Luxem Assassin	2	2.6%	14	42.9%	49.7%	46.8%	49.0%	1292	—
11	Fire Crux Mage	3	3.9%	18	33.3%	38.9%	46.0%	47.3%	1265	—
12	Wind Umbra Diana	1	1.3%	7	42.9%	45.0%	44.7%	44.8%	1219	↓ low
13	Water Crux Mage	1	1.3%	7	28.6%	39.0%	44.3%	45.7%	1262	—
14	Rogue	2	2.6%	11	31.8%	39.7%	42.9%	44.6%	1307	—
15	Water Astra Cleric	2	2.6%	9	11.1%	25.5%	42.7%	43.3%	1139	↓ low
16	Fire Arcane	5	6.5%	32	40.6%	43.3%	42.7%	43.9%	1197	↓ low
17	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	2.6%	10	30.0%	37.5%	42.1%	43.4%	1246	↓ low
18	Fire Umbra Ranger	4	5.2%	24	41.7%	43.3%	42.0%	42.9%	1207	↓ low
19	Wind Astra Cleric	1	1.3%	6	16.7%	34.2%	41.0%	43.1%	1126	↓ low
20	Fire Neos	1	1.3%	1	0.0%	40.8%	40.0%	40.8%	1468	↑ top
21	Water Silvie	1	1.3%	2	0.0%	35.1%	40.0%	40.8%	1171	↓ low