← HP Wolves Den Store Championship! (AMB Season)
Water Crux MageTier 2
at HP Wolves Den Store Championship! (AMB Season)
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1427
· median 1427
· range 1427–1427
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1125
Q1 1295
Q3 1481
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Allies | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
