← HP Wolves Den Store Championship! (AMB Season)
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at HP Wolves Den Store Championship! (AMB Season)
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1642
· median 1642
· range 1642–1642
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1125
Q1 1295
Q3 1481
1668
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
