← FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.8% | -4.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 59.5% | +5.5 |
| Slimes | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.7% | +6.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane Rai | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Wind Diana | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Jin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flashfire Horse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Firetuned Automaton | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bertha, Spry Howitzer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blitz Mage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Marksman Captain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embershield Keeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scorching Strafe | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |