← FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.9% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.3% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 40.5% | -5.5 |
| Slimes | 7.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.0% | -7.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane Rai | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.1% | +8.8 |
| Water Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Revitalizing Cleanse, Rippleback Terrapin. Losers more often ran: Tidal Lock, Mystic Purifier, Grand Crusader's Ring.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |