← FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Water Crux MageTier 1
at FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
decks
2
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-5-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.1%
avg ELO -6.4 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1445
· median 1445
· range 1422–1468
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1218
Q3 1385
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 35.5% | -13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Exia | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane Rai | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
