← FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Water Arcane RaiTier 2
at FTG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.1%
avg ELO -18.1 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
38.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1201
· median 1201
· range 1201–1201
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1218
Q3 1385
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arcane Rai decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
