The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 1	10	28.6%	31-11-2	72.7%	59.2%	63.7%	57.5%	1430	↑ top
2		Slimes	Tier 2	7	20.0%	9-19-2	33.3%	41.9%	38.0%	43.4%	1193	↓ low
3		Water Diana	Tier 2	2	5.7%	4-6-0	40.0%	32.8%	45.3%	39.2%	1313	—
4		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	2	5.7%	6-6-0	50.0%	59.1%	40.8%	48.8%	1141	↓ low
5		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	2	5.7%	6-5-1	54.2%	60.6%	48.0%	53.4%	1331	—
6		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	2	5.7%	6-6-0	50.0%	48.0%	49.7%	48.1%	1307	—
7		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	2.9%	4-2-1	64.3%	49.5%	54.3%	49.8%	1432	↑ top
8		Fire Exia	Tier 2	1	2.9%	2-3-0	40.0%	48.3%	50.0%	53.7%	1184	↓ low
9		Fire Silvie	Tier 2	1	2.9%	1-4-0	20.0%	36.6%	41.5%	42.9%	1103	↓ low
10		Water Allies	Tier 2	1	2.9%	6-1-2	77.8%	72.5%	60.0%	63.0%	1359	↑ top
11		Water Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	2.9%	2-2-0	50.0%	46.4%	42.1%	43.7%	1341	—
12		Water Silvie	Tier 2	1	2.9%	3-3-0	50.0%	48.0%	54.1%	52.9%	1376	↑ top
13		Water Tera Kongming	Tier 2	1	2.9%	0-3-0	0.0%	27.5%	40.0%	39.9%	1069	↓ low
14		Wind Lorraine	Tier 2	1	2.9%	1-5-0	16.7%	41.8%	42.0%	49.8%	1079	↓ low
15		Wind Razorgale	Tier 2	1	2.9%	0-5-0	0.0%	27.9%	35.2%	38.4%	1297	—
16		Wind Silvie	Tier 2	1	2.9%	3-3-0	50.0%	62.4%	40.8%	48.5%	1055	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Penguin Mill 10 decks · 28.6%
• Slimes 7 decks · 20.0%
• Water Diana 2 decks · 5.7%
• Water Ravishing Mill 2 decks · 5.7%
• Wind Astra Cleric 2 decks · 5.7%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 5.7%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 2.9%
• Fire Exia 1 deck · 2.9%
• Fire Silvie 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Allies 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Silvie 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Tera Kongming 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Lorraine 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Razorgale 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Silvie 1 deck · 2.9%