← The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.5%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1432
· median 1432
· range 1432–1432
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1161
Q3 1379
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 28.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Slimes | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Water Diana | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
