← The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW
Water AlliesTier 2
at The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
6-1-2
overall winrate
77.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
72.5%
avg ELO +10.4 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
63.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1359
· median 1359
· range 1359–1359
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1161
Q3 1379
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 28.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 66.7% | +10.7 |
| Slimes | 20.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Water Diana | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
