← The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW
decks
2
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.1%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
40.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1141
· median 1141
· range 1080–1201
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1161
Q3 1379
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 28.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 42.7% | -5.5 |
| Slimes | 20.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Water Diana | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
