← The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW

Water Ravishing MillTier 2

at The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW

decks
2 (5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12 6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.1% avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
40.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1141 · median 1141 · range 1080–1201 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1023 Q1 1161 Q3 1379 1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Penguin Mill 28.6% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 42.7% -5.5
Slimes 20.0% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 49.6% -0.3
Water Diana 5.7% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 5.7% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 5.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.8% +14.1
Fire Crux Mage 2.9% 0
Fire Exia 2.9% 0
Fire Silvie 2.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.0% +17.6
Water Allies 2.9% 0
Water Crux Mage 2.9% 0
Water Silvie 2.9% 0
Water Tera Kongming 2.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.7% +15.5
Wind Lorraine 2.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.7% +17.1
Wind Razorgale 2.9% 0
Wind Silvie 2.9% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/15611/archetypes/Water Ravishing Mill