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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.0% | 12 | 9-2-1 | 79.2% | 71.9% | 61.2% | +4.8 |
| Water Diana | 5.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 75.1% | +24.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 57.3% | +5.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 51.4% | +0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 67.2% | +11.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.1 |
| Fire Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 33.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Silvie | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 47.1% | -2.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Scatter Essence, Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer, Vanitas, Convergent Ruin. Losers more often ran: Tariff Ring, Cerulean Decree, Tidal Lock.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scatter Essence | +0.70 | 8 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.50 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.50 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.50 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.40 | 5 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.30 | 2 | 5 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |