← The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW
Fire ExiaTier 2
at The Path of Snow - Fargo Regionals @ JWW
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1184
· median 1184
· range 1184–1184
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1161
Q3 1379
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 28.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.1 |
| Slimes | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Water Silvie | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
