← Card Merchant Westcity Grand Archive Auckland Regionals
Water AlliesTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity Grand Archive Auckland Regionals
decks
4
(9.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
10-10-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.1%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1430
· median 1489
· range 1159–1584
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1063
Q1 1263
Q3 1418
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.6% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 37.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Allies | 11.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.2% | -8.1 |
| Slimes | 9.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
