← Card Merchant Westcity Grand Archive Auckland Regionals
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Card Merchant Westcity Grand Archive Auckland Regionals
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.4%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
40.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1217
· median 1217
· range 1217–1217
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1063
Q1 1263
Q3 1418
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.3% | -8.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 9.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
