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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity Grand Archive Auckland Regionals
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 65.0% | +7.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 11.6% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 38.8% | -6.5 |
| Slimes | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 9.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 62.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.8 |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Defender's Maul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |