← Card Merchant Westcity Grand Archive Auckland Regionals
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity Grand Archive Auckland Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.2% | +4.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.6% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 35.0% | -7.6 |
| Wind Allies | 11.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.4% | +8.1 |
| Slimes | 9.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Water Allies | 9.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.3% | +2.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -7.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |