← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 7.4% | 12 | 83.3% | 78.2% | 62.0% | 62.4% | 1443 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Allies | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 70.0% | 53.3% | 56.4% | 51.9% | 1254 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 11.1% | 21 | 61.9% | 55.6% | 54.2% | 51.8% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 11.1% | 18 | 55.6% | 49.9% | 54.1% | 51.9% | 1370 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 50.0% | 51.8% | 52.9% | 53.6% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Arcane | 3 | 11.1% | 16 | 56.2% | 55.2% | 51.9% | 52.2% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 30.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | 49.0% | 1375 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Tera Silvie | 2 | 7.4% | 9 | 38.9% | 46.5% | 44.7% | 46.6% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 6 | 22.2% | 18 | 36.1% | 44.5% | 42.6% | 45.7% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Tera Tamer | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 38.3% | 41.7% | 43.9% | 1301 | — |
| 11 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 30.0% | 38.0% | 40.8% | 40.6% | 1267 | — |
| 12 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 0.0% | 29.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Water Lorraine | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.7% | 38.2% | 39.0% | 1131 | ↓ low |