EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Michigan AMB Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 1.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 61.6% | 57.8% | 58.4% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 5 | 8.5% | 26 | 69.2% | 57.8% | 56.9% | 54.5% | 1357 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Penguin Mill | 6 | 10.2% | 34 | 67.6% | 52.9% | 56.8% | 50.6% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.7% | 6 | 50.0% | 47.5% | 54.1% | 51.6% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Slimes | 1 | 1.7% | 6 | 75.0% | 51.1% | 53.8% | 48.5% | 1582 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 3.4% | 12 | 50.0% | 58.5% | 52.0% | 54.8% | 1213 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 1.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 58.0% | 51.6% | 55.1% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Slimes | 7 | 11.9% | 39 | 51.3% | 50.3% | 50.2% | 49.5% | 1307 | — |
| 9 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 45.4% | 49.6% | 44.5% | 1540 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Ravishing Mill | 9 | 15.3% | 44 | 48.9% | 52.6% | 49.2% | 51.2% | 1269 | — |
| 11 | Wind Allies | 8 | 13.6% | 38 | 44.7% | 46.1% | 49.0% | 48.9% | 1281 | — |
| 12 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.5% | 48.8% | 51.8% | 1246 | — |
| 13 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 5.1% | 16 | 46.9% | 59.0% | 47.9% | 52.9% | 1258 | — |
| 14 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 3.4% | 12 | 45.8% | 54.8% | 47.2% | 49.2% | 1264 | — |
| 15 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 1.7% | 6 | 25.0% | 43.7% | 46.6% | 48.8% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Allies | 1 | 1.7% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.5% | 44.4% | 46.5% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Crux Mage | 4 | 6.8% | 22 | 36.4% | 39.8% | 44.0% | 44.9% | 1288 | — |
| 18 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 6.8% | 23 | 34.8% | 39.5% | 43.0% | 45.6% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Diana | 1 | 1.7% | 6 | 16.7% | 33.1% | 37.1% | 38.7% | 1160 | ↓ low |